Fantastic points made about how estimates are treated by organisations, and how teams have a happy path bias. Even when the data from previously completed work shows the same patterns occurring, we are loathe to revise estimates upwards.
Which leads me to your other observation that ...
"An estimate gives the team the opportunity to examine the shape of a solution and to get aligned around it." If only!!
Instead it seems the real-life experience is often "an estimate is the 'correct' answer for a mathematical equation that leadership knows in advance, but which teams get 'wrong' repeatedly because they insist on following the rules of addition and multiplication." Eventually though the team get ground down to agreeing to a date (usually by cutting scope or quality) .... BUT those undelivered items or resulting bug fixes never make it into the next estimate.
The bane of my life for "quarterly planning". Plus as you rightly pointed out, people neglect factoring in other commitments like training or holidays or customer critical support. Those "don't count," and yet they do.
I love this observation Crystal that somehow there's a 'right' answer that people are expected to grope toward in estimation. It misses the point of what good an estimate can do and turns it into a stick to beat people with. First, the estimate is 'too big' and then the team gets criticised for failing to meet the 'improved' estimate.
So well said, Andrew!
Fantastic points made about how estimates are treated by organisations, and how teams have a happy path bias. Even when the data from previously completed work shows the same patterns occurring, we are loathe to revise estimates upwards.
Which leads me to your other observation that ...
"An estimate gives the team the opportunity to examine the shape of a solution and to get aligned around it." If only!!
Instead it seems the real-life experience is often "an estimate is the 'correct' answer for a mathematical equation that leadership knows in advance, but which teams get 'wrong' repeatedly because they insist on following the rules of addition and multiplication." Eventually though the team get ground down to agreeing to a date (usually by cutting scope or quality) .... BUT those undelivered items or resulting bug fixes never make it into the next estimate.
The bane of my life for "quarterly planning". Plus as you rightly pointed out, people neglect factoring in other commitments like training or holidays or customer critical support. Those "don't count," and yet they do.
Rant over.
I love this observation Crystal that somehow there's a 'right' answer that people are expected to grope toward in estimation. It misses the point of what good an estimate can do and turns it into a stick to beat people with. First, the estimate is 'too big' and then the team gets criticised for failing to meet the 'improved' estimate.